Whether you are for the Iran War or not there are some things you need to know, that is, the very real global consequences of this war. A war that is ongoing and does not look like it will be ending anytime soon despite the claims from the Trump Administration. As I am writing this we are on day 20 of the war.
As we can see from the above graph from Moody’s Analytics, the United States is at a 48.6% probability of entering a recession in the next 12 months. Note that every time the United States has reached 50% probability or higher, it has entered into a recession. Also note that almost every time this has occurred historically, it was provoked by an oil crisis. However, this graph is not telling the full story either. The United States today is in a much more precarious situation than it was decades ago. One very big reason for this is because in all of those past recessions the USD was still considered having Safe Haven status and was uncontested in its position as the world reserve currency. However, today this is very far from the case. [See Part I and Part II of this series.]
As the U.S. economy weakens it further risks losing its position as the world economic hegemon and because it has positioned itself to become an increasingly hyper-financialized debtor economy, losing this hegemon status will be what causes this entire House of Cards to come crashing down. The reality of the situation is that the United States entirely relies on financialized debt to prop up their economy. This is what the U.S. Treasury Bonds literally are, debt that is purchased by investors with the promise of interest on the return. Essentially it is a bet. The investor is betting that the U.S. economy will find a way to get the money somehow and pay that interest, whether the bond is a few months, a year, three years or ten years. Ten years being the highest interest payback because it holds the highest risk. This system entirely relies on the “faith” that American Supremacy will continue on. Not just from Americans, but also from its foreign investors who own 32% of U.S. debt, where over $8 trillion is at risk if a foreign dump were to occur. That is enough to collapse the U.S. economy.
Deutsche Bank strategists have also emphasised this ironic reliance of the United States on foreign financing via large external deficits. That effectively, the U.S. Administration is asking the world to borrow its money so that it can punish the world! (Keep in mind the ongoing tariff threats on both Europe and Asia). In total EU investors, central banks and entities own more than 10 trillion in U.S. dollar assets. And this includes treasuries and equities.
Is it any wonder that Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, said at the most recent Davos Summit “What I am advising everyone to do is sit back take a deep breath and let things play out. As I have said on April 2nd the worse thing countries can do is escalate against the United States.” Does that sound reassuring to you, or more like the mad waving of a loaded gun in a hostage situation? Thus, if investors lose “faith” in American Supremacy the House of Cards will come tumbling down. There is no real economy to fall back on after decades of deindustrialisation since the murder of Kennedy.
Thus, the irony of American Supremacy is that it is at this point today, entirely reliant on the world buying into this. Therefore, if your foreign policy is going to wreck havoc on the entire global system, while your economy is teetering on the brink, realise that it will not take much for that match to turn into a massive bonfire. The reality is that the United States has been in a recession for many years now, especially since the 2008 crash. Essentially the United States’ real economy died that day, and Wall Street fully took over. Though many people lost their savings and their homes in this crash, there was the appearance of a recovery because more debt was allowed to accrue with the illusion that wealth was being generated. We can see this quite strikingly by just looking at the overinflated GDP that is reported by the United States every year, that in fact has been masking a negative GDP growth that has in truth been occurring for decades.
As we can appreciate with the above graph, the real GDP that was reported by the U.S. government was a 2.8% growth in 2024, however, what YOU ARE NOT TOLD is that that “growth” was made possible by the country going into a 6.4-6.7% GDP deficit. It is like spending $1 for a 50 cent return. It isn’t sustainable. This was not just a phenomenon for 2024, as we can see from the above graph the U.S. has been running a federal deficit for over twenty years! It is literally going into further and further debt to prop up the illusion of wealth! This is not real growth. This is a Ponzi scheme. And the thing about Ponzi schemes is that it is not generating anything real, at least not anything on the scale that it is claiming. The only reason why this Ponzi scheme has been able to continue for as long as it has is because it has been relying on past economic laurels. In other words, the United States used to have a real economy, a real manufacturing base, real wealth for its people. However, with heavy banking deregulation that has occurred over the years and the decision to outsource manufacturing, the U.S. economy was slowly swallowed by Wall Street. This has been in fact a long battle in American history, between the American System and Wall Street.
The American people have been lied to once again. The reason why the U.S. economy is collapsing is not because the “world” was taking advantage of U.S., as the sales pitch for the 2025 tariffs claimed, but rather because the American economy has been taken over by Wall Street. Thus, you should be deeply troubled that the sitting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not only a former employee of George Soros, but a Wall Street man through and through, who has stated in 2025 that he is for even further banking deregulation. The very thing that has allowed the U.S. economy to be put on auction. The very thing that has turned the U.S. into a casino economy, where people bet on how near a Dark Age we are, thinking they are somehow going to be able to collect on such a bet. And here is where the relevance of the Iran War comes in. As already mentioned, the position of the USD as the world reserve currency is under threat while its economy is at risk of defaulting on its massive debt of $38 trillion and counting. This threat to the U.S. as an economic hegemon is coming from the BRICS nations, especially China. As already explained in Part I and Part II of this series, this is why the Trump Administration seized Venezuelan oil and why they want Greenland for a military base. To secure their petrodollar and maritime trade corridors respectively. This is all about maintaining the USD as the world reserve currency and “securing” global supply chains, in other words, resorting increasingly to acts of piracy. Because it was shown that the U.S. was unable to “contain” China economically through the 2025 tariffs, it has now resorted to using a great deal of force in just the first few months of 2026, in its attempt to “contain” China’s supply chains. And this force is rapidly accelerating into sheer recklessness and chaos. Just over a day ago, the biggest gas field in the world was struck, the South Pars.
Oil and gas exports account for almost 60% of Iranian export revenue. The strike was meant to hurt the Iranian economy. However, this strike has revealed that U.S. allies are indeed expendable in this war, not just in the Middle East, but throughout Europe and Asia more broadly as well.
Qatar owns parts of this gas field and called the strike dangerous and irresponsible. Qatar has the world’s biggest LNG export plant and accounts for a fifth of global energy supply. Gas fields are highly volatile, and it isn’t possible to calculate a limited strike on a gas field for reasons that should be obvious. Thus, yes the strike was highly irresponsible. A strike on the LARGEST GAS FIELD IN THE WORLD. Really think of the global consequences to such actions here. These are not measured actions against Iran, when you are treating the entire world as collateral damage. This is not a move that is being done out of strength, but rather out of weakness and desperation. The United States has shown that if it cannot control the region of the Middle East it is ready to literally set the whole thing on fire. And in case you were not aware, the consequences of this would be hyper-inflation for the world – including the United States, hence it being a desperate move. Energy costs are at the core of manufacturing costs, transportation costs and even for the food we consume. When energy costs spike - everything we rely upon to sustain our living also increases dramatically in price. This is amidst an already inflationary baseline for many countries around the world. And if you thought food prices were going to go down with the Trump Administration, you are sadly mistaken. Living costs are going to be significantly increasing not decreasing thanks to the Iran War. The South Pars is the world’s largest natural gas field which holds a total of 51 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves. That’s more than six times the amount of the Permian Basin in the U.S., the largest gas reserve in the United States.
So just to be clear, Qatar owns 37 trillion cubic meters of the 51 trillion cubic meters of South Pars. Iran owns the other 14 trillion cubic meters. Thus, Qatar is the majority owner of the South Pars gas fields. What has made things even more concerning is yet another Twilight Zone tweet from the White House in response to this incredibly reckless move.
This is a very concerning bipolar message from Trump. He denies that the attack on South Pars had anything to do with the United States (which they have been repeatedly claiming throughout this war, that it is all Israel’s fault for hitting civilian targets) nor that they knew anything about the planned attack from Israel. Trump then goes on to assure that no more attacks will be made by Israel on the South Pars!? This is clearly a message to the Gulf allies who are justifiably furious over this, that is, that they are increasingly becoming collateral damage in this war. However, even if we were to believe that the United States had nothing to do with this, a message repeated over and over again throughout this war, why would their word that Israel will make no further attacks carry any weight? Either the United States is in control of the situation or they are not. You can’t have it both ways, especially in a war scenario. Just what some apologists are trying to do in their attempt to backpedal from this disastrous war and claim the U.S. was forced or “tricked” into this by Israel. Well, let me tell you, if that is the case, you don’t have a real government. The Trump Administration is a puppet government if you support such a line. You cannot claim the U.S. never wanted to enter this war but then had to continue in this war that threatens global hyper-inflation to simply “save face” and that somehow the United States is still in control and will “save the world.” They are either in over their heads and incompetent at best, or this is their agenda, to spark global chaos, to flip over the chessboard, to light the world on fire and hope they are the only ones left standing. There is no in-between here. Honestly, it is time to take some responsibility for the actions of your country, actions that are now threatening the livelihood of everyone in the world. The United States is on the brink of launching the world into hyper-inflation and we are going to apologise for this move, saying it wasn’t their intention? If it isn’t the intention, stop the war now! If it was a “mistake” EXIT NOW! This lame excuse that they cannot because they need to “save face”, as if this is some sort of justification?!? There is nothing left to save as a reputation if you collapse the entire world economy, especially when the U.S. is clearly banking on being on top in such a scenario. Are we supposed to be crying a river for the United States sparking a global energy crisis that threatens to be on an existential level for countries all around the world? Is the United States not the biggest threat to the world in either case? Through their sheer incompetent hubris or a very real and calculated agenda for global dominance in energy supply chains. Either way, the United States is not fit to lead anything because it has shown that everything is a justifiable collateral to their objective, which is American Supremacy. Trump then goes on in this message, after apologising for this attack on South Pars, to threaten to strike the entire South Pars if Iran dares to retaliate…?!? So first off, doesn’t sound like Trump really was apologetic about the South Pars being struck after all, and secondly, why threaten the entire South Pars which is majority owned by Qatar? Why threaten a massive energy producer for the world and especially Europe who relies on Qatar LNG exports? People would do well to remember the story of Nordstream, and how American LNG benefitted. After all, it is the United States who plan on doubling their LNG exports to the world by 2028 that has the most to gain from such a reckless move of striking the South Pars, not Israel.
 This is something Trump does pretty much all of the time and people should really stop trying to “interpret” the abstract dance because it really isn’t abstract at the end of the day. It is in truth a form of gaslighting. That is what Trump does in his contradictory statements, gaslight after gaslight. Deny, deny, finally admit and then conclude “so what?” He literally did this in front of the press recently when the subject of the Gulf states being targeted during this war came up. Trump stated he was surprised that UAE had been hit heavily, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar (who all hold U.S. military bases by the way), that he thought they were all allies with each other, and that they had good relations with Iran. This is already a bizarre comment to make because if Iran is such a threat to American interests in the Middle East, how do you explain that they have good relations with the other Gulf states? Either they were a real threat or they were not a real threat. And it is looking like this is more and more a move for energy dominance yet again rather than a matter of “national security.” Should we be surprised at this point? Trump went on to deny that any of this was predictable that the Gulf states would be targeted, but ends with “And if we did know, big deal. I mean, we have to do what we have to do.” What are we to take away from such a message? That the U.S. will have to do what they have to do, no matter the cost. But what exactly is their objective? What is the Real Agenda Behind the Iran War?
Case Study Number #4 in the U.S. bid for Global Domination: Iran“Make Iran poor again. (pauses) Not the Iranian people, the Iranian government.” - U.S. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent in his confirmation hearing to the Senate on Jan. 16, 2025[1] On January 13th this tweet went out:
Where Trump addressed “Iranian Patriots” to revolt and take over Iranian institutions, promising that help was on its way ending with MIGA, Make Iran Great Again. Though there has been some denial that regime change was ever the objective by the Trump Administration, the words of Trump himself confirm that indeed this was the real U.S. objective towards Iran that began during this past summer’s 12 Day War between Iran and Israel. It was never about negotiations over safe uranium enrichment, but rather nothing short of a regime change in Iran that would clearly work in the interest of the United States – especially on the issue of oil and gas.
It is not a coincidence that only weeks after the kidnapping of Maduro, who was accused by the U.S. government of being the head of a fake drug cartel that they had put on a terrorist list to which the DOJ now acknowledges, where the U.S. effectively seized Venezuelan oil, the largest oil reserve in the world - that the U.S. then proceeded to target Iran. Not a very subtle move for those actually paying attention to the global energy supply chains.
Venezuela, just like Iran, are not a threat to “national security” in the sense of the safety of the American people, but rather because they are massive energy hubs that were not propping up the U.S. petrodollar and thus were not supporting U.S. economic dominance. Both countries were in fact exporting most of their oil and in the case of Iran (oil and gas) to China and using the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), for these transactions. Add this to the fact that Russia is also transacting in Chinese currency with any country who wishes to buy its oil, and the U.S. petrodollar is under serious risk of maintaining its hold.
As we can see in the above graphic, of the top 10 oil reserves, Venezuela ranks the largest, Iran the third largest and Russia the eighth. The U.S. ranks tenth. All the other top ten countries are allies to the U.S. or its satrapy after the War on Terror escapades, including Iraq who ranks fifth, and Libya who ranks ninth. Today, the U.S. controls every penny of Iraqi oil revenues since its illegal invasion in 2003 which was justified using false intelligence from MI6 that everyone acknowledges yet the U.S. has physically occupied this country ever since. Hussein Askary writes in his article for The Cradle:
So, in case you were one of those foolish enough to believe that this was about MIGA, Make Iran Great Again - as Bessent said it best, the former bloodhound of George Soros, it is really about “Making Iran Poor Again.”[2] And one only needs to look as far as Iraq to see what lies in the future for Iran if the U.S. is successful in its desired regime change. It should also be noted that both the invasions of Iraq (via the Chilcot Inquiry) and Libya (via a report by the British Foreign Affairs Committee) were based off of false intelligence from MI6. Something that is officially acknowledged. And it just so happens that MI6 is once again to be found at the scene of the crime now behind the claims that Iran has a “secret nuclear program” justifying yet another invasion of a country that just so happens to have another massive oil reserve, which I am sure the U.S. would be more than happy to manage for the “sake” of the Iranian people. In addition, those who have been so sloppily purporting that this war against Iran is equivalent to a war with the City of London would do well to update themselves on the present machinations of MI6 who appears to always be the corrupt intelligence behind these invasions that the U.S. follows every single time. Let alone the fact that if the U.S. truly wants to address the problems of the City of London, perhaps start at home with the Wall Street parasite that has hollowed out your entire economy?!! Do these people really think that it makes sense to spend tens of billions (looking like it will soon be hundreds of billions) on a war with Iran, creating an energy crisis where oil and gas infrastructure has been severely damaged within the Gulf countries with the risk of global hyperinflation – and that this somehow is a more effective route than actually just reorganising your own banking system?!?! No, we need to burn down everything and then the world will be saved?….Right. While you are at it, use the same intelligence agencies you have been criticizing for the past several years to head these military campaigns because now it isn’t an issue anymore?!? Are the CIA and FBI now supposed to be the good guys? Has any internal corruption been actually addressed within the American system as it was promised was going to happen? Nah. We just went straight into bombing and invading countries always for the sake of American safety while their police become ever more brutal with their own people. But I am sure this is all being done with the very best intentions for you. And so, Trump began launching an economic attack on Iran at the start of this year, for the sake of Iran of course….
As we can see, surprise surprise China is the number one trading partner with a heavily U.S. sanctioned country, just like in the case of Venezuela where Trump actually invited China to buy Venezuelan oil from the United States, in USD of course. China declined by the way. These secondary tariffs on Iran are basically economic carpet bombing at this point.
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global energy supply. What this means is that the top oil producers in the world rely on the Strait of Hormuz to ship oil and gas to the world. These top oil and gas producers include Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar and the UAE. Most of the refineries are centered in the Persian Gulf, at the head of the Strait of Hormuz and have either been struck in the war or have been closed down. If the Gulf refineries remain compromised, even if the oil and gas were theoretically available, they would not be usable without being first refined. The U.S. is presently at maximum capacity for oil refinery.
The U.S. is not even in a position to refine the Venezuelan oil they have seized. This is why they were so desperate to have China buy the oil (which looks like a no-go) because China is one of the few countries that can refine Venezuelan crude, the most challenging and expensive to refine. India may buy some but the reality is that the majority of this Venezuelan oil is rotting away in storage tankers. As already discussed in Part I, China does not need to buy Venezuelan oil from the U.S. If the Gulf refineries are also damaged, there will be even more oil that is in need of refining. An essential service that most countries are not able to do at this point. China is the best positioned in this scenario, having a massive refining capability and only at 70% utilization rate.
This is in fact, the third checkmate move China now holds (the first being their holding of U.S. Treasury Bonds, the second their control over the rare earths supply chain) that has appeared thanks to the reckless war the U.S. has been waging. In a world where refineries are greatly limited, China again holds the key to energy dominance, being the only country that has a massive refining capability that is growing and who can significantly increase the quantity it is presently refining. It should also be noted here that China doesn’t rely on oil and gas for its manufacturing energy needs, since China has made sure to diversify where its energy is coming from, unlike so many nations like South Korea[3] and Japan who are among the Asian nations that will be hit the hardest from this Iran War, and who happen to be the top allies of the United States within Asia.
This is really becoming the story of the ant and the cricket. As we can see with the above graph, China relies on coal for about 60% of its energy needs, hydro is the second most dependent source of energy for China, together making up close to 85% of China’s total energy needs. Wind and solar make up most of the rest of China’s energy needs. These are all sources of energy that China is entirely self-reliant on. In other words, they do not rely on any outside trade to provide energy in these forms. Their coal supply is internally generated. Most countries do not have such a diversified and self-reliant energy portfolio and rely on trade to provide for their energy needs, making them susceptible to the increasingly weaponized global energy supply chains, thanks to the United States. Canada for instance holds the fourth largest oil reserve but is reliant on the United States to refine their oil and sell it back to them. Not a good position to be in if the United States decides not to play nice. This in fact was the situation that colonies found themselves in. By not being in control of the refineries, despite having a large oil reserve, the country would be entirely dependent on foreign refineries for the wealth and energy it would receive. In fact, this has been the historical bane of Iran in its fight for independence. Thus, even if the U.S. were successful in seizing all of the oil and gas from the Middle East, if they do not have the ability to refine these, they will not be usable for its energy needs - including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The United States is presently nowhere near building up its refineries to meet such a demand. And Israel’s refining capacity has also been seriously impacted by Iranian missile strikes. It would appear that this is another disastrously short-sighted move from the U.S., that has gambled on the security of the entire world. For in the scenario we are headed towards, the world will face a huge energy scarcity, exacerbated from a shortage of refineries that will take years to rebuild and increase in number. The U.S. will also suffer from this since they are not an economic island, as the disastrous effects of the 2025 tariffs have shown, and costs will rise dramatically for Americans as well. In other words, the United States has started an energy war without even having the capability of refining the oil and gas it has seized from Venezuela (recall the disastrous U.S. Big Oil tour in Venezuela who told Trump the situation was ‘uninvestable’) in addition to the U.S.’s hope to seize the oil from Iran. It is true that the Americans would be hit less hard than certain countries in Asia and Europe, but they would be hit harder, a lot harder, than China, which was their true agenda this entire time. To sink the Chinese economy. So, all for nought? China has nearly 90 million barrels of refining capacity and has built a ton of refineries capable of making themselves sufficient in turning crude into all sorts of oil products. The U.S. has hardly built any new refineries and Beijing’s capacity has exceeded the United States. On top of this, Chinese refineries still have room to process more crude oil whereas the Americans do not. Chinese refineries are also integrated, they don’t just produce gasoline or diesel. They also produce petrochemicals including the inputs for fertilizers. And that means that food production is also heavily influenced by the Chinese as well. The war is further shifting global supply chains in favor of China. Trump and Bessent were already worried about China controlling rare earth supplies. But they have engineered a new headache for the West. China has the refining capacity to swing the global fuels market. And if the Gulf shutdown lasts long enough, countries will have to run to Beijing to get their refined oil. Higher demand amidst limited supply, prices will fly up. China earns a lot more money. China is in fact an exporter of oil and have been canceling agreed refined fuel export cargoes to brace their economy for the global energy crisis. China is ring-fencing its own economy and preparing for an attrition war. Every country is going to get hammered by this energy crisis and the one who suffers the least is going to “win” thanks to the U.S. war on Iran. China has the largest network of oil refineries in the world. As a result they can easily satisfy their own demand for refined fuels like gasoline or diesel. And make no mistake Chinese demand is enormous. They even have enough capacity to be Asia’s third largest exporter just behind Singapore and Korea. By cutting off their own exports to the world, this creates a further squeeze on global supply. This will ramp up the pain on all global manufacturers who aren’t prepared. Japan is a prime example of this, but the biggest casualty will be Europe.
This is a big step up from previous actions, China has not only stopped selling new cargoes, they are cancelling the existing deals likely through Force Majeure clauses. It puts an even bigger squeeze on energy markets which will raise the price of gasoline and diesel in the U.S. as well. In addition to all of this, the U.S. oil reserve is going to fall by another 41% coming the 170 million barrel release and this will leave the U.S. with just 243 million barrels. The reserve has to keep around a minimum of 150 million barrels to maintain operations and that leaves just 93 million or less than 5 days buffer time from the Hormuz shutdown. We are heading back to the 1980s low which is a real problem for U.S. energy security.
Japan is also releasing 40% of its oil reserves in a desperate attempt to stave off inflation. A move that puts the economy at greater risk if the Hormuz closure is to continue for another several weeks or longer. Japan can get their supply from the U.S. but this will be an extremely high prices, basic supply and demand. And this in turn is going to drive up cost in all sectors, again creating further inflation on an economy that is already on life-support.
G7 is also looking at releasing emergency oil reserves. Again if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for more days than the emergency reserves can supply (on top of the fact that not everything will immediately resume online if the Strait reopens) the energy crisis will hit these economies even harder. The only countries left who will have big reserves that can affect global markets will be China and Russia. And we know things are getting desperate when Russian oil is unsanctioned by the United States, “temporarily” of course. The U.S. needs Russia to increase oil export volumes to bring down global inflation, especially for western economies. This now puts Russia as well in a position of leverage. If Russia were to squeeze the West, especially Europe, that would keep the heat off of Russia especially with Europe supplying Ukraine. However, no need for Putin to make such decisions, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the EU Commission, who plans to remove Europe entirely from Russian energy by the end of 2027, has in fact scolded the U.S. for unsanctioning Russian oil and refuses to purchase this energy despite the loss of Qatar LNG. Looks like the captain is eager to sink with the ship, though not sure the crew feels the same way. Nevertheless, this gives a great deal of advantage to Russia either way. Leverage is firmly with Russia today and even if Europe refuses to buy more, Russia is making $150 million a day in extra revenue from surging oil prices, that is $4.5 billion extra a month, which could increase to $9 billion a month if energy costs continue to soar. And remember, Russia is trading in China’s Yuan currency.
It should become increasingly clear what is happening here. Iran’s strategy was never to win a military confrontation with the United States, this is of course not possible, especially considering its location geographically. Iran has been waging a war on U.S. dollar assets. And Bessent might be eating his words soon, as he did with the 2025 tariffs against China. The higher energy costs soar, the greater danger the U.S. economy is in and the greater probability that hyper-inflation is on the horizon. As we can see, it is the United States and its closest allies that are going to be hit hardest by this coming storm, a storm the U.S. created.
American states like California, Texas and New Jersey are going to be directly affected by the closure of the Hormuz Strait. Meanwhile Chinese exports to the world are accelerating even further. The complete opposite intended effect of the 2025 tariffs. And as crisis scenarios are rapidly unfolding in 2026, countries are stocking up with affordable supplies from China in preparation for the attrition war. As energy costs soar for most of the world, China’s products will become even more affordable thanks to its energy independent economy. So this Iran War is really backfiring in several ways, and setting the U.S. even further back in global supply chain dominance.
Increasingly, the West is at the mercy of the decisions China and Russia will make in their energy trade. What if China continues its refined fuel export ban. And what if Russia throttles oil supply? The West could see a serious supply chain breakdown. And let us not forget, Iran is a close ally of China, and China has been supporting Iran throughout this war indirectly.
The big Gulf states have cut down their energy production because the Strait of Hormuz is on fire. Drone strikes keep happening and the flow of oil is going to be blocked indefinitely by Iran who is looking to entirely purge American presence from the Middle East. Iran has a geographical advantage and the military power to shutdown the Strait. Qatar has paused the world’s largest LNG plant at Ras Laffan. The Ras Tanura plant, which is the biggest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia has effectively shutdown as well. Chinese vessels were among the first to be allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz which is completely unpassable without going through Iranian checkpoints. China is backing Iran through intelligence, reconnaissance, supply and funding in this war so why wouldn’t the Iranians give the Chinese safe passage. However, in the midst of the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where China was clearly coming out the winner, Scott Bessent thought it somehow a good idea to ask China to reduce its oil purchases from its U.S. adversaries, Russia and Iran (who are selling their oil in Yuan by the way), and for China to instead buy U.S. oil!?!
Clearly there is no limit to American hubris at this point… And should it be any surprise that these sorts of comments are making the rounds on social media?
Meanwhile, the Iranians do not seem to be in any rush to reopen the Strait.
This of course was a long shot but shows that the Iranians are rather calm for a country that has according to the Trump Administration been entirely militarily defeated…. While the victorious U.S. looks increasingly like it is going to need to commit itself to the loony bin at the end of all of this.
This war on Iran is a gift to China?!?!
Or four days later to be exact. Trump then took this “gift” and turned it into a demand that China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and others help America open the Strait of Hormuz, that is still being held strong by the Iranians, despite being “decapitated” as Trump classily put it, in reference to the murder of the Ayatollah in his home.
And then finally the “gift” turned into an outright threat.
However, the U.S. has nothing to threaten with at this point. China has effectively decoupled with its economy thanks to the 2025 tariffs. The Chinese don’t have to make any trade deal with the U.S., they are making plenty of money and are well on their way to another record year in trade surplus. It is bizarre, though not surprising, that the United States is trying to act like a victim after it went on a shooting spree against a close ally of China, and thinks it can demand China to come in and essentially “clean up” the mess the U.S. has made in another one of its short-sighted tantrums. A tantrum that has ironically given China, Russia and Iran even more leverage, if Iran can hold out.
All the markets in the world are buying more Chinese goods. Even the U.S. was buying more over the last month or two. And to make matters worse for the Americans. The Iranians have begun opening a section of the Strait of Hormuz that passes through their two islands Larak and Qeshm, effectively acting as a toll booth, whereby oil cargo will have to be paid in the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), if they want safe passage through.
And the Bab al-Mandab Strait could also be under threat of closure if the Houthis from Yemen get involved in support of their ally Iran. This waterway makes up about 5% of global energy supply, so a total of 25% of global energy supply will be subject to what Iran decides.
Let us also remind ourselves that the majority of oil and gas purchases from these Gulf States are being made by China. Thus, it makes a lot of sense for them to be selling in the Chinese currency if they want to continue this trade. Ultimately, the biggest loser in this set up is the U.S.’s petrodollar. What a disastrous outcome for the U.S. for what is amounting to be a hefty price tag for fighting this asymmetric war with Iran, where $2-4 million U.S. missiles (a piece) are being used to strike down $20,000-50,000 Iranian drones.
According to the Iran War Cost Tracker the amount is mind-boggling. We are at $23.3 billion today and counting: $11,000 per second, $41 billion per hour and at least $1 billion a day. This is sheer insanity and it is no wonder that the U.S. bond market is breaking. On top of this we have some very embarrassing cracks that are beginning to form in the U.S. military. Apparently the new F-35 jets, particularly the F-35As for the U.S. Air Force have been delivered without any radar in the nose due to the critical minerals shortage (due to China banning critical minerals to the U.S. defense companies). The F-35 program planned to introduce the advanced AN/APG-85 radar (developed by Northrop Grumman as a next-generation upgrade over the existing AN/APG-81, featuring improved capabilities like Gallium Nitride technology) that started production around 2025. However, the APG-85 radars are not yet ready because they could not incorporate the “Gallium Nitride technology” without the gallium nitride…And China is not selling gallium nitride or any other rare earths to the U.S. for military application. However, the brand new F-35s that were made to mount these new radar systems cannot mount the old systems, they are not compatible. So, what did the U.S. military decide to do? Send these F-35s into the field with no radar and with gym weights as a counterweight….
Someone joked on social media: “I bet 10 yuan that these barbell pieces are also produced in China.” And they are probably right.
Analysts are stating that the U.S. is facing 8-12 months before key defense supply chains collapse. This is in the midst of the United States waging a war with Iran that looks like it will only be expanding with possible boots on the ground, rather than the in-and-out short and sweet airstrike that they were originally claiming was the plan. This is also in the face of Iran having destroyed a good deal of U.S. radar and interceptor equipment along with U.S. military bases stationed in the surrounding Gulf states. Isreal also appears to be running low on its missile stock. In the face of its “total victory” against Iran, the Americans have had to move their THAAD missile defense system from South Korea to the Middle East for extra support. If the U.S. loses this war, reviving the Empire will be nearly impossible. Iran is holding strong and for them the plan is simple. They don’t need to win against the U.S. military. They just need to hold on until the weakest link in the chain breaks - and that is the U.S. economy.
 Cynthia Chung is the President of the Rising Tide Foundation and author of the books “The Shaping of a World Religion” & “The Empire on Which the Black Sun Never Set,” consider supporting her work by making a donation and subscribing to her substack page Through A Glass Darkly. Watch our other RTF and CP films and documentaries here.
A Special Thanks to Sean Foo who has greatly helped me in his analysis and use of informative graphs!Footnotes:[1] During his confirmation hearing on January 16, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. aims to ‘make Iran poor again’ as part of its sanctions policy. Bessent clarified that this strategy targets the Iranian regime rather than the Iranian people. He noted that under the Trump administration, Iran’s oil exports had plummeted to 100,000 barrels per day, but they have since increased to approximately 1.7 million barrels. Bessent emphasized that as U.S. energy output rises, the sanctions could further weaken the Iranian government financially while simultaneously enhancing domestic production standards. Source: https://deepnewz.com/middle-east/treasury-secretary-designate-scott-bessent-aims-to-make-iran-poor-again-during-1-62ea4b1a [2] US Aims to Cut Iranian Oil Flows by More Than 90%, Bessent said back in February 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/us-aims-to-cut-iranian-oil-flows-by-more-than-90-bessent-says [3] South Korea is the largest fuel exporter, if they choose to hold onto this fuel for their own needs, their revenue will take a hit, hence their GDP will still be negatively impacted.
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Sunday, 22 March 2026
The Real Agenda Behind the Iran War
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Episode 36 - Ballgame Over?
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