Dipali is the MENA Editor for the new academic year. She is from the US and India, and will be entering my third year studying International Relations. She is passionate about exploring the realm of international development through public policy, global cooperation and dialogue. She hopes to address these topics and engage others through her new role as regional editor.
"An agreement is only as good as its implementation." This statement was made by Sultan al-Jaber, who served as the President of this year's Conference of Parties (COP) and is also the CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the UAE. This stark truth loomed large over COP28, the 28th session of the United Nations Climate Change conference that unfolded from November 30th to December 12th, 2023, in Dubai. Supposedly a pivotal event for global leaders to deliberate on strategies to address climate change, COP28 has been heralded as a crucial juncture to assess the progress in adhering to the Paris Agreement, of which the latter brought together global efforts in 2015 to address climate change through emissions reduction and adaptation.
As we delve into the outcomes, however, it becomes apparent that not all attention directed towards COP28 participants is warranted as they create potential for loopholes in the climate agreement and exclude smaller states from final negotiations. This article thus showcases that there may have been endeavours aimed at advancing individual interests while neglecting common goals. To understand this perspective, it is first essential to comprehend the reasons behind the increasing significance of places like the UAE within the international system.
Growing Trend in Attaining Centre Stage
Based on Statista's findings, in 2022, the Middle East played a pivotal role in global oil production, a primary source aggravating global warming, contributing about 32.8% to the overall output last year. Such regional wealth is largely attributed to the abundant natural resources it possesses, which have been effectively utilized to construct world-class infrastructure. In this sense, the Middle East's geopolitical location, cultural heritage, and access to vital resources like oil make it a focal point for international discussions. This adds a unique layer to its appeal as a host for multilateral events. Hosting multinational events like COP allows Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries to showcase economic prowess, project a positive international image, and contribute to global collaboration. These further positions these nations for increased international attention, influence, fostering engagement in critical global discussions, such as those addressing climate change and sustainability. It serves as a platform for MENA to play a pivotal role in shaping solutions to pressing global challenges.
It is undeniable that the area has held growing economic and political influence on the world stage. Over the past three decades, Dubai has experienced a remarkable metamorphosis, evolving from a modest fishing village and trading port into a metropolis that is informally known as the concrete jungle with the world's tallest skyscrapers, major oil corporations, and business growth opportunities. However, the rise of such cities in the Middle East is not just about grandeur, but also about leveraging events like the 2022 COP27 in Egypt and FIFA World Cup in Qatar, and the 2028 Universal Exhibition in the UAE to generate revenue, boost tourism, and attract investments. While these events may enhance the region's image, they also present an opportunity for MENA countries to collaborate with other nations and showcase their commitment to global issues, including climate change and sustainable development. This commitment would have likely been their voice of reason to host the COP28. However, behind the glitz and glamour of hosting major multilateral events lies a more nuanced reality, as it is paradoxical for these cities to host such events given that their existence essentially hinges on and prospers from these very resources.
Challenges that COP28 Outcomes Pose
A critical reflection on the COP28 agreement reveals a mixed outcome. High-level commitments were made primarily by wealthier western nations such as the United States, United Kingdom, and EU countries like Germany who has offered a staggering 100 million Euros to the Loss and Damage Fund. These offered potential drivers for more ambitious national policies in transitioning away from fossil fuels, climate finance contributions, and support for adaptation. However, this apparent progress came at a cost. The language in the final agreement, especially regarding follow-through in these areas, was watered down by many "developed" and oil-producing parties. Despite initial pushes for stronger commitments by the UAE Presidency team, these promises fall short of the urgent action required to limit global warming to 1.5°C this century. The President of the event went so far as to assert that there is no scientific basis supporting the need to phase out fossil fuels in order to contain global warming within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit. This unequivocally signals a lack in initiative in meeting a common goal.
The text of the final agreement reveals incremental aspirations rather than the transformative strides that many, particularly the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and climate activists, were advocating for. While there is recognition of the need to transition from fossil fuels, the agreement includes a puzzling paragraph on "transitional fuels." Subsequently, commitments to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency, and reduce methane emissions by 2030 lack clear targets, and language on coal phase-out has been diluted from "rapidly phasing down" to vague "efforts towards phase-down." For instance, ''accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power'' holds no more strength in language than that used in COP26 in 2021, let alone it being more effective.
Furthermore, the process during COP left vulnerable countries behind, particularly when Sultan al-Jaber passed the decision agreement in the absence of the AOSIS bloc and restricted any further comment. This highlights the exclusion of politically smaller states from the decision-making process, providing significant room for more powerful nations to strategically manipulate the language used in COP. This allows them to navigate the agreements without significant hindrance, ensuring they can still benefit from how they've shaped the agreements and move with considerable freedom. In the end, while COP28 produced some notable steps forward, the lack of specific commitments and potential for loopholes due to poor language and limited participation mean that it now rests on the parties themselves to embed these high-level agreements into national policy and revise Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submissions. Consequently, this event appears more as a public display rather than a sincere effort to address the necessary considerations for climate management and sustainable development.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Sultan al-Jaber's assertion that "An agreement is only as good as its implementation" casts a shadow over the outcomes of COP28. Despite the strategic importance of the MENA region and its hosting of global events to bolster international standing, the tangible impact of COP28 remains uncertain. While countries sought to showcase commitment to global issues, the outcomes reveal a mixed landscape. High-level commitments by wealthier nations were marred by watered-down language and diluted targets, particularly in transitioning away from fossil fuels. The lack of specific commitments and potential loopholes underscore the challenge of translating high-level agreements into meaningful national policies. Furthermore, the exclusion of politically smaller states during COP raises concerns about the influence of more powerful nations in shaping decisions. In essence, COP28, despite its grandeur, prompts critical reflection on the sincerity and effectiveness of global efforts in addressing climate management and sustainable development.
Photo credit: consilium.europa.eu
No comments:
Post a Comment