COVID-19: (South Africa) – 2022/07/01

Arnau van Wyngaard

Jul 1

Someone wanted to know from me what I think will happen in South Africa regarding COVID-19. I won't fall into the trap to predict the future. But I have noticed a few things which might indicate what lies ahead:

1. The COVID pandemic is not a thing of the past. We are still within the pandemic, as confirmed by South Africa's deputy director-general in the Department of Health, dr. Nicholas Crisp.

2. The urgency to get vaccinated and to get booter shots have waned considerably. When I went for my second booster a week ago, the nurse who administers the vaccines had to be called away from other duties to attend to me and I was the only one that day who had turned up for a booster.

3. On 11 May France also stopped all regulations regarding the wearing of masks. Their infection rate came down to 0.06%, but from 3 June (23 days later) the infection rate started moving upwards again and as of today it is standing at 0.3% and three days ago people were requested to wear their masks again on public transport:
https://www.reuters.com/.../france-asks-citizens-wear.../

4. On 16 May Germany also stopped all regulations regarding the wearing of masks. Their infection rate came down to 0.06%, but from 2 June (16 days later) the infection rate started moving upwards again and as of today it is standing at 0.37%. As far as I can see, the wearing of masks on public transport is compulsory:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../germany-travel.../

5. I have no idea whether South Africa will follow the same pattern. But I'm keeping this in mind as a possibility.

A report in The Lancet indicates that, in the first year of vaccine rollout, vaccinations saved the lives of between 19.1 million and 20.4 million people. Without vaccines, the study estimates, roughly three times as many people would have died from COVID in 2021 alone:
https://www.economist.com/.../how-many-lives-have-been...

In South Africa, apart from the vaccination programme, most numbers are still moving in the right direction, although excess deaths are still fairly high. The next two to three weeks will probably give a better indication of what we can expect in the near future.