Article in The Conversation Australia titled 'COVID halved international student numbers in Australia. The risk now is we lose future skilled workers and citizens' about the prospects for universities with international students returning, but in much lower numbers. This would also affect the skilled permanent immigration system by decreasing the available pool of potential applicants onshore.

However, there are several related points including the broader sector, neither countering nor rebutting nativist PR in media/politics addressing ageing monocultural voters, backgrounded by local and global demographic decline.

The latter is a contentious point as Australians have been subjected to decades of imported fossil fuel supported ZPG spruiking 'nebulous' NOM net overseas migration representing short term churn over (inflated by the UNPD in 2006) demanding more visa, border and immigration restrictions to halt population growth for environmental hygiene; 'greenwashing' and 'dog whistling'.

While most comments reflect the zeitgeist of demanding more support for locals, a comment from Conor King, a Melbourne based academic, elaborates and explains better:

'The article is a very narrow emphasis on a major achievement of providing education to a great number of people.  With over 80% of students leaving Australia to return to home country or go to another, the residence outcome is both useful but far from typical - 80% figures comes from Immigration-Treasury study of Australia's population and immigration from early 2000s to mid 2010s.  

That was before the massive expansion in Chinese students in a few unis (far from all) - with Chinese students preferred by Immigration because they do return home in large numbers and otherwise tend to obey visa requirements.

What is interesting is the comments that seem to forget that humans wandered out of Africa through some mix of need, whimsy and opportunity, and have not stopped wandering since.  

For various periods some places experienced less, and the folk there suffering physical, cultural and philosophical isolation turning them inward and inbred. Reflected in current day nationalisms and their appeals to modern day stories of times past.

A national border should be like a state or local government border - an indicator of a set of ever developing local customs and rules, not a barrier to movement of people, ideas or goods.

In sum - Australia's education institutions educate people - lots of them.  That's good.'

King points out a misunderstanding that has been encouraged by 'Australia's best demographer' informing media i.e. at times suggesting ALL students are eligible for automatic permanent residency when it's only a minority who are eligible and then only another minority actually gain residency under the permanent cap.

Further, the sector is much broader than universities, even if they look down their noses, but also includes schools, English colleges and the vocational sector; who are also important for lower skilled pathways but also act as 'net financial budget contributors', why is this important?

Although the Anglosphere puts much trust in suboptimal UNPD data analysis, the OECD population data gives a much more stark graphical presentation i.e. all cohorts in most nations are in decline but increasing dependency ratios of pensioners and retirees to be supported by public services, but fewer tax payers?

'COVID halved international student numbers in Australia. The risk now is we lose future skilled workers and citizens

The saying "you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone" reminds us not to take things for granted. It is often when we no longer have something or someone that we recognise the value of what we've lost. This is true of international students in Australia whose numbers halved during the pandemic.

Can hindsight help us understand what we had and help to guide our future? That question lingers as tens of thousands of new and returning international students arrive back in Australia now that borders have reopened.

Students pursue international education for a variety of reasons. The main one is to improve their employment prospects.

International students are looking for high-quality, relevant curriculum and credentials that will best serve their career plans. While studying, they also seek social connections that help them to navigate local education and employment systems.

The pandemic created chaos and uncertainty about enrolments, border closures, flight availability and quarantine requirements. Over the past two years, many international students had to put their plans on hold. They hung on to the possibility of studying and working in Australia.

Let's not forget, they can choose other countries that will be seeking highly educated and skilled graduates. Some have already moved on to countries where borders were open, such as Canada. These countries offered access to high-quality international education with fewer complications and greater certainty about transitioning to work visas.

Their absence hit us hard

Consider what Australia lost when so many international students were gone. In 2019, they contributed an estimated $40.3 billion to the economy. International education supported about 250,000 jobs in Australia.

Border closures reduced enrolments by up to 70% in some parts of the higher education sector.

The financial impacts on Australian universities have been smaller than originally predicted, but the loss of billions in revenue should not be discounted. Universities were exposed to the risks of depending on a never-ending flow of new international students and their tuition fees. The pandemic's impacts on university finances led to the loss of as many as 35,000 academic and professional jobs.

Local communities and businesses also missed the consumer power of international students and visiting family members who purchased goods and services. Employers have struggled to find enough local workers for job vacancies that these students would fill.

Australia must extend the welcome mat.

The Australian government recently announced incentives for international students to return soon to help overcome labour shortages and stimulate market growth. Visa fee rebates and relaxed restrictions on allowable working hours are aimed at recovery in the international student market, while filling gaps in the workforce. What remains to be seen is how well entry-level and part-time jobs in service and hospitality will translate into future employment opportunities that match these students' qualifications.

The fall in international student numbers also meant losing key resources for intercultural learning. Although many of us are longing to travel abroad for a dose of intercultural exposure, learning at home between local and international students is a relatively untapped resource. Increasing the numbers of international and local students studying together is part of the solution identified by the Australian Strategy for International Education.

Many international students will need extra support to develop social capital – the friendships, community contacts, mentors and networks that help to build a sense of belonging now and in the future.

International students have been treated like commodities for higher education and the labour market. But they are people, whose choice of international education is connected to their hopes and plans after graduating.

The global pursuit of talent will increase graduates' opportunities to decide which country they choose for education, for employment and for permanent migration. Not every international graduate will choose to stay in Australia. Fluctuating immigration policy makes it difficult to predict who will be allowed to stay and who will not.

This is not a short-term issue

Many countries, including Australia, need to attract talented graduates to make up for low birth rates, low immigration due to the pandemic and skilled worker shortages. International students are preferred immigrants because they combine experience from their home countries with experience studying and living locally.

As international students return to Australia, the welcome mat needs to stay out longer. It matters how we support them, not only upon arrival, but throughout their academic programs and as they prepare for their future employment.

International students invest in their education and the country where they study. We in turn need to recognise their many contributions and invest in their potential.

The longer-term view requires strategy for supporting them as students, employees and future associates, within and beyond Australia's borders. Let's think carefully about what can be improved as international students return to Australia.'

For blogs and article related to international education and demography click through:

Demography, Immigration, Population and the Greening of Hate

Population Pyramids, Economics, Ageing, Pensions, Demography and Misunderstanding Data Sets

Population Decline and Effects on Taxation, Benefits, Economy and Society

E-Learning for University Students in Africa

International Education – Foreign Student – Value

Immigration is not Cause of Unemployment

Immigration Population Growth Decline NOM Net Overseas Migration

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